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Abstract -
- Note that "MtC" means Million Tonnes of Carbon.
In recent years emissions of carbon dioxide from the UK electricity generation sector have stayed constant or increased slightly. Values predicted in recent DTI Updated Energy Projections (UEP) [1] show a decrease over the next two decades, but at a reduced rate compared to the 1990's.
It should be noted, however, that the observed and assumed values in Fig. 1 all represent electricity supplies with no (historically) or low (UEP projections) UK CO2 reduction targets. As Fig. 1 shows, if overall UK energy use were to match DTI UEP predictions for 2020, the UK would not achieve the reduction path for CO2 emissions recommended by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution [2], and subsequently endorsed by the Energy White Paper [3], exceeding the target by about 30 MtC/year. If required, however, a reduction in CO2 emissions of 15 MtC/year in the electricity generation sector by 2020 is probably technically feasible, through combinations of increased fuel switching, greater renewable generation, new nuclear and carbon capture and storage. However, the 'commercially viability' of some or all of these measures for deployment in 2020 depends entirely on final UK carbon emission targets and the ability of alternative options to deliver at a lower price. Additional costs for the 'decarbonised electricity' options are probably in the range of 1-3 p/kWh.|
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